News

Q4 2018 Market Updates

Proteins

Poultry meals continue to trade flat in both Chicken and Turkey. Lower supplies of chicken fat have created pressure but with so much material due to lack of exports the integrators may be choosing Mechanically Separated over Rendered proteins at the moment and causing artificial support for the rendered and fat markets. Still a value buy at current levels but choices are getting slim on who can provide coverage as demand remains strong for pet food and most suppliers are booked for 2019 capacity.

Salmon meal made a slight downward turn in pricing but has since firmed with good amounts of buying taking place in Q4. Expect to see this market trade sideways without any negative news impacts. If however some negative supply news like Sea Lice or algae blooms this market may jump due to high demand. Not much to be nervous over but recommend covering wisely for 2019 as this material is currently fair priced for quality material.

Novels/Exotics:

Lamb meal has traded well north of last year and unfortunately hasn’t turned back in our favor. Cover wisely here as some of the big MD processors may be a bit overbought on their supply and if that works against them it may mean downward pressure on lamb mid-way through 2019. Also, additional sources of Lamb meal are making their way into the US breaking from the traditional Australia/NZ pattern and this should help support the market demand and keep a little downward pressure on pricing.

Venison continues its hand to mouth supply and while there is no positive news to share on this market currently it appears other countries may be wising up to the opportunity. Reports from the EU indicate interest in exporting but meeting USDA import permit requirements is a challenge yet to be overcome. More to come on possible new sources but for now it may be easier to find the proverbial “needle in a haystack” than to find measurable supply of venison meal without new sources being approved.

Cricket meal – LANI just approved a new source of Cricket protein meal. Interesting source of protein, still in it’s very novel stage but it is a highly renewable, quickly scalable source with actual demand in human food. Currently in development for multiple human grade products and some pet foods this is one that may make its way onto the stage as a new novel protein solution if the consumer can look past the “yuck factor”.

Pulses:

Lentils moved north as exports started to make their impact on the market. Still strong compared to 5-year average but not as strong as the pricing was at harvest. Cover needs before exports take the wheel and steer this ship off course as the possibility for getting stuck owning high priced material isn’t worth waiting for another dip.

Chickpeas remain flat to lightly up since harvest pricing. India may influence at some point, Turkey has less buying power than previous years, large tender from US government for canned product, lower than average yield in South America, etc. Can’t really point to one indicator here for a Bull or Bear market but expect that next year’s crop will be less than this year simply because farmers will plant less. Many people planted expecting good money and most aren’t covering input costs even due to high yields and flat to lower demand this year. Expectations are that this year’s pricing may be but a blip on the radar rather than a new norm. Coverage is recommended for the value buys, but don’t change any budget numbers based upon these prices. 10 year average is a better budget number to avoid too many rollercoaster rides when it comes to finished formula pricing.

Peas began to see a little northward pressure as India and speculators have started to make a few moves. Still sideways trading in my opinion but definitely don’t see any reason to count on anymore pricing reductions here.

Updated by: Robert Lee, LANI Strategic Sourcing Manager