According to the USGS National Wildlife Health Center Avian Influenza continues to spread worldwide. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has confirmed an outbreak of H7N9 at a broiler farm in Tennessee in which 73,500 birds have been culled. They have also confirmed an outbreak of H5N2 at a Wisconsin Turkey Farm and this farm is currently under quarantine. Neither of two confirmed outbreaks are the Avian Influenza strains that are currently spreading in European countries causing havoc on the Duck Industry. So far France officials have confirmed 341 outbreaks of the H5N8 strain of Avian Influenza but have not confirmed the number of birds that have been culled. France is the largest producer of Duck Meal which has caused a major tightening in the market of available Duck Meal. Current Duck Meal suppliers that have not been affected by the Avian Influenza at this time are not offering any new contracts. These Duck Meal suppliers are honoring their contracts; however have placed contract holders on allocation. The farms that have been affected by the Avian Influenza are following strict protocols to get their operations back up and running. After following proper government regulated protocols it takes roughly six to nine months for Manufacturers to become operational again. The Duck Meal market will remain in a heavily shortened supply for the remainder of 2017, and it is believed that Duck Meal prices in 2018 will be substantially higher over 2017 contracts that were signed off on in Q4 2016.
- Chris Frey, Purchasing Agent
According to Brock Associates our grain prices this year should improve over last year. With that being said you can look towards the corn and soybean markets being bearish. Following down the line, if you are looking to book soybean meal you should hold off for a bit as that market looks bearish as well. As we look forward through the rest of the year, it seems that the problematic ingredients; pea protein, salmon meal, potato protein, will not see any reprieve. As it stands now there is a global shortage on protein across all industries. This means animal and plant based, with the plant side being hit harder than animal. Analysts have determined that all other thing held equal we should be fine if volumes remain the same. They have warned that any hiccup or supply disruption could knock the wheels of the industries. This is not said to cause panic but to make sure that you have a backup plan just in case. Chickpeas remain to have elevated prices. This market still looks poised to be bullish until new crop has arrived, although prices have remained decently steady with a slight tick upwards for the time being. Peas also seem to have their prices being held higher than we would like. There was a small dip this past month as farmers let a good chunk of supply back into the market, with that being said, as with many years in the past prices will continue to creep upward until new crop.
– Loren Topp, Purchasing Agent